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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.